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第一条新闻：特朗普持续施压美联储，市场谨慎观望
美国总统特朗普自重返白宫以来，再次向美联储主席鲍威尔发起抨击，要求尽快大幅降息。他还批评美联储在办公楼装修上花费过高，引发舆论争议。目前博彩市场预测鲍威尔今年被撤换的概率约20%。
虽然市场反应暂时平稳，但分析人士警告，如果美联储独立性受到侵蚀，债券和外汇市场或将剧烈波动。英文摘要：Trump’s Renewed Attacks Put Fed Independence Under PressurePresident Trump launched fresh criticism against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding aggressive rate cuts and accusing him of overspending on office renovations. Betting markets see a 20% chance Powell could be removed this year. While markets remain calm for now, analysts warn of accumulating risks to financial stability.
第二条新闻：印度央行或将降息，经济学家意见分歧
路透社一项最新调查显示，略超过一半的经济学家预计印度央行将在7月16日降息25个基点至5.25%。虽然通胀率处于1.87%的低位，但全球贸易不确定性和特朗普关税威胁令部分官员态度谨慎。
多数分析人士认为，今年年底前还可能进行一次降息。市场普遍关注政策走向对印度卢比和股市的影响。
英文摘要：Bare majority of economists expect Bank Indonesia to cut rates on July 16
A Reuters poll of economists between July 7–14 found a slim majority expect Bank Indonesia to cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 5.25% on July 16. Inflation remains manageable at 1.87%, but global uncertainties—especially Trump’s tariffs—divide opinion. Most predict another cut by year-end.
第三条新闻：英国央行暗示可能降息，特朗普关税威胁拖累市场
英国央行行长贝利表示，就业市场疲软可能迫使央行进一步降息，消息公布后英镑跌至三周新低。同时，特朗普威胁8月1日起对欧盟商品加征30%关税，引发欧洲股市普遍下跌。欧盟回应称将考虑高达720亿欧元的报复性关税，但仍保留谈判空间。
此举令市场对欧盟经济前景感到担忧。
英文摘要：BoE governor says jobs slowdown could prompt rate cut; markets fall after Trump tariff threat
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that a weakening labor market might lead to further rate cuts, sending the pound to a three-week low. European markets also fell after Trump’s threat of a 30% tariff on EU goods from August 1. The EU responded, threatening €72bn in retaliatory tariffs, though officials remain open to negotiation.
第四条新闻：欧盟面临美方关税重击，出口模式或需调整
特朗普提出的30%关税将对欧盟多个重要行业造成沉重打击，包括制药、汽车、机械和葡萄酒等。欧盟警告称，这种关税将使贸易“几乎无法进行”，并可能拖累欧元区GDP下降0.7个百分点。德国方面预计，到2028年将因此损失超过2000亿欧元。目前，双方正尝试将税率下调至10%，同时制定应急方案。
英文摘要：For Europe, 30% US tariff would hammer trade, force export model rethink
Reuters reports that Trump’s proposed 30% tariffs on EU imports could devastate industries like pharmaceuticals, autos, machinery and wine. The EU warns this would make trade "practically impossible" and could knock 0.7 pp off eurozone GDP. Germany could lose over €200bn by 2028. Talks aim to reduce the tariff to 10%, with contingency plans set.
第五条新闻：亚洲股市多数下跌，特朗普关税担忧持续
在特朗普关税威胁持续发酵的背景下，亚洲主要股指本周多数收跌。日本日经指数和澳大利亚ASX 200小幅上涨，但香港和上海市场普遍下挫。美国股指期货走势分化，投资者密切关注即将公布的美国经济数据与大型企业财报。
比特币在美国“加密货币周”到来前再创新高。
英文摘要：Asian shares mostly decline as worries continue over Trump’s tariffs
AP reports Asian markets mostly declined amid investor concern over new tariffs taking effect August 1. Japan’s Nikkei and Australia’s ASX 200 rose slightly, while Hong Kong and Shanghai closed lower. U.S. equity futures were mixed; upcoming U.S. data and earnings from JPMorgan, PepsiCo, etc. could drive sentiment. Bitcoin hit records ahead of U.S. Crypto Week.
第六条新闻：全球股市再创新高，科技与AI板块领涨
尽管贸易紧张和地缘政治风险持续，全球股市本周整体反弹至历史新高。科技与人工智能板块成为主要上涨动力。投资者将目光集中在美联储和欧洲央行的下一步利率决策。债券市场波动加剧，短期债券表现优于长期债券，反映出对未来降息的预期。
英文摘要：Markets & Economic Update: July 2025 – Central Bank crossroads
Analyst reports highlight that global equities have rebounded to new highs despite trade tensions and geopolitical risks, fueled largely by tech and AI sectors. Investors now watch central banks—the Fed and ECB—for rate decision cues. Meanwhile, bond markets remain volatile, with shorter-term bonds outperforming amid anticipation of future rate cuts.
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